Share the post "How Social Media is fueling Geopolitical Tensions in the Horn of Africa.."
In the Horn of Africa, where fragile political alliances and military tensions are the norm, conflict between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia has found a new battleground: social media. Platforms like TikTok, X (formerly Twitter), and Facebook are now key players in a digital war where misinformation is stoking nationalist fervorand increasing the risk of real-world violence…
Two major geopolitical flashpoints fuel this online conflict: Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River and its recent diplomatic engagement with Somaliland, a self-declared independent region seeking international recognition. For Egypt, which relies on the Nile for its water, the dam is seen as a direct threat to its survival. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s outreach to Somaliland has sparked outrage in Somalia, which views the move as a challenge to its territorial integrity.
TikTok’s influence
TikTok, in particular, has emerged as a stage where complex geopolitical tensions are reduced, dramatized, and frequently distorted. In a widely-shared trend, an Ethiopian user posted a video where a woman symbolically pours water from a jar marked with Ethiopia’s flag into smaller jars labeled Egypt and Sudan, representing Ethiopia’s control over the Nile. Accompanied by patriotic music, the video is a bold display of national pride, amplifying Ethiopian narratives across social media.
Egyptian TikTok users have responded in kind. In one video, two men pour water from a bowl marked with Ethiopia’s flag into glasses representing Egypt and Sudan, only to return the water to the bowl. The video ends with the placement of an explosive device on the bowl, hinting at Egypt’sfrustration and alluding to the possibility of sabotage. While these videos are symbolic, the underlying tensions they reflect are very real.
Screenshot from the TikTok video by eslamyears22 Fair use.
With an ongoing information war between Egypt and Ethiopia as the backdrop, Ethiopia’s growing relationship with Somaliland has further complicated the region’s fragile dynamics. In January 2024, Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, hinting at possible recognition of its independence — a move Somalia vehemently opposed. Sensing an opportunity, Egypt reinforced its ties with Somalia through a military cooperation agreement, escalating tensions in the region.
As news of the Egypt-Somalia alliance spread, TikTok and other social media platforms were flooded with celebratory videos, many of which relied on AI-generated content and manipulated footage, Among the most provocative was an anonymous TikTok user, operating under the handle “user74220974543408,” who gained attention for a series of incendiary posts. In one, a map of Ethiopia is shown underfoot with the Egyptian flag circulating around it, accompanied by ominous music designed to evoke a sense of threat.
AI and disinformation tactics
Disinformation tactics have not been confined to viral videos and memes. Egyptian and Somali actors have repurposed speeches from former global leaders to fuel regional tensions. A widely circulated video features former U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2020 comment that Egypt might “blow up” the GERD, used by Egyptian and Somali figures to stoke fears of imminent conflict.
