Al Shabaab’s Battlefield Losses vs. Its Information Warfare Dominance in Somalia..

Shabaab militants have dramatically escalated their operations in 2-Shabelle Regions of Somalia since February 2025, launching a coordinated campaign that threatens to overturn significant counterterrorism achievements made in 2022, according to recent security assessments…

The terrorist group has increased attacks in the strategically important Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions by 50 percent compared to 2024 averages, demonstrating a renewed capability to challenge Somali government forces. In a concerning development, Al Shabaab has seized more towns in these regions during the first three months of 2025 than throughout the entirety of 2024.

“The enemy is going through the most difficult stages and is drawing his last breath. Therefore, we must all rise up to finish him off,” declared a former Al Shabaab leader in a propaganda video released on March 10, signaling possible intentions to escalate further.

Despite suffering significant losses in manpower and territorial control, Al Shabaab has capitalized on the Somali government’s ineffective media strategy. Security experts note that while government forces and community militias continue to make progress in eradicating the group militarily, they fail to counter the terrorists’ sophisticated propaganda machine. This information vacuum allows Al Shabaab to project an image of strength that contradicts battlefield realities.

The militant group appears to be executing a two-front strategy designed to link its support zones in central and southern Somalia while simultaneously encircling the capital, Mogadishu. Security analysts note that the offensive aims to exploit gaps created by the haphazard implementation of the new African Union mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and the withdrawal of Burundian forces that previously secured the Middle Shabelle region.

Complicating the situation further, opposition political groups have indirectly reinforced Al Shabaab’s propaganda narratives, creating a challenging information environment for the government. These opposition elements, while not directly supporting terrorism, amplify messages that undermine public confidence in security operations and government capabilities.

International partners have more than doubled the number of drone strikes against Al Shabaab in 2025 compared to all of 2024. While these strikes have prevented the militants from holding many temporarily captured locations, they have not stopped the group from mounting large-scale attacks that have inflicted significant casualties on Somali forces, Military successes alone may prove insufficient without a corresponding strategy to win the equally important information war.