The slogan of “conducting free and fair direct elections” has been repeatedly voiced by Somali officials since 2009, alongside other ambitious projects such as “completing the constitution” and “eliminating terrorism.” However, after 15 years, none of these aspirations have been fully realised…
These issues are deeply interconnected and cannot be separated, Completing the constitution hinges on achieving political consensus among Somali stakeholders, while conducting direct elections depends on eliminating armed groups that control significant parts of the country, Both require political reconciliation—or, more precisely, political consensus.
The call for “direct elections” has resurfaced strongly under Hassan Sheikh Adminstration, resonating among members of the current government and its supporters, Some have even treated it as an unquestionable objective, Yet, despite this enthusiasm—whether driven by genuine conviction or political opportunism—the reality is that the necessary groundwork has not been laid, at least not under the current circumstances.
Politically, Somalia remains deeply divided. Open disputes persist between the federal government and two states (Jubaland and Puntland), Additionally, latent tensions exist between the federal government and the other three states, which, though not yet public, could erupt at any moment.
On the security front, it is widely acknowledged that the federal government has not yet succeeded in liberating the country from Al-Shabaab’s grip. Consequently, “direct elections” could only be conducted in very limited areas if held today.
Members of the current bicameral parliament also harbor significant concerns about their uncertain future if direct elections were to be implemented. Many prefer to maintain the status quo, which allows them to return to their seats in the same manner as in previous (indirect) elections, Notably, most parliamentarians voted for the controversial constitutional amendments—not out of conviction, but to align with the president’s directives.
There is no debate about the importance of direct elections as a potential solution to the struggle for power. However, conducting direct elections in Somalia under the current conditions risks leading to violence and instability, Direct elections are not a magical solution that will instantly resolve Somalia’s problems. Instead, they represent a long-term goal that can only be achieved gradually over generations.
While the idea of direct elections in Somalia is ambitious, it lacks a realistic foundation given the ongoing political divisions, security challenges, and the absence of national consensus. Without addressing these fundamental issues, this vision remains more of an illusion than a reality.
