Somalia’s military build pits old foes against New Realities in the Horn of Africa..

Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia are rapidly advancing a military build-up to counter Ethiopia’s naval ambitions and territorial reach, The trilateral alliance, formalized at a summit in Asmara on October 10, is moving quickly from diplomatic agreements to concrete military actions. Egyptian forces have already begun shipping arms to Somalia, and recent reports confirm that Egypt is set to deploy up to 10,000 soldiers as part of a peacekeeping slated for early 2025…

The military aid, ostensibly aimed at combating al Shabaab, is also seen as a calculated move to strengthen Somalia’s capacity against Ethiopia’s influence, At the heart of the escalating tensions is Ethiopia’s January 2024 naval base agreement with Somaliland, which granted Addis Ababa access to the strategically important coastline. Somalia, which does not recognize Somaliland’s independence, has condemned the deal as an attack on its territorial sovereignty. Egypt and Eritrea, both longstanding rivals of Ethiopia, have aligned themselves with Mogadishu to push back against Ethiopia’s expanding influence in the region.

Ethiopia, for its part, has responded by reinforcing its own military presence near its border with Eritrea and issuing stern warnings to Egypt. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration has described the Egyptian army build-up as a direct threat, signalling that any further escalation could result in open conflict, Eritrea’s involvement in the alliance is driven by its own security concerns. The Asmara government remains wary of Ethiopia’s regional ambitions, particularly along their shared border, which has seen sporadic military mobilizations. By aligning with Egypt and Somalia, Eritrea seeks to solidify its own position against Ethiopia while securing crucial maritime routes along the Red Sea.

The Red Sea, a vital corridor for global trade and military influence, is central to the alliance’s broader strategy. Egypt, intent on maintaining control over the Red Sea and preventing Ethiopia from establishing a naval presence, has found willing partners in Somalia and Eritrea, both of which stand to gain from pushing back against Ethiopian influence, The military build-up in Somalia has the potential to ignite a larger conflict in the Horn of Africa. As Egyptian troops prepare to deploy and Eritrea remains militarized along its border, the risk of direct confrontation with Ethiopia grows. Analysts have warned that Ethiopia’s naval ambitions and broader regional strategy could lead to a protracted struggle for influence, with Somalia caught in the middle.