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In 2024, the Federal Government of Somalia appears to be on a diplomatic collision course with Kenya, similar to 2019, when Mogadishu imposed an aviation embargo on Kismayo over the Jubaland elections. President Mohamud should avoid repeating the mistakes of his predecessor…
Jilib, approximately 71 miles from Kismayo, has become a key stronghold for Al-Shabaab in Middle Juba. This shift is rooted in the local population’s strong opposition to Ahmed Madobe and the current Jubaland administration. After Jubaland’s establishment under Somali government efforts, Madobe focused his governance and resources on a single clan, sidelining Jilib’s diverse communities.
As a result, many in Jilib, representing various clans, have aligned with Al-Shabaab, seeing them as an alternative to Madobe’s rule. Nuur Abdulle, a longtime resident of Jilib currently undergoing medical care in Mogadishu, notes that Al-Shabaab effectively recruits in the area by positioning themselves as protectors of Jilib against Ahmed Madobe’s forces.
According to Nuur, the people of Jilib do not resent the Somali National Army (SNA), which they perceive as inclusive of all Somali clans. In fact, their trust in the SNA significantly exceeds their confidence in Madobe’s administration, revealing a profound disconnect between Jubaland’s leadership and the local population.
How can we effectively defeat Al-Shabaab?
Villa Somalia stumbles from one policy disaster to another, resulting in increased threats to Somalia’s national security. The Federal Government maintains no ties with Jubaland and Puntland, and it designated secession as a national threat after the Somaliland Administration signed a maritime Memorandum of Understanding with Ethiopia in January 2024.
Since 2013, Jubaland has not made institutional progress despite parts of the region remaining under Al-Shabaab, whose capability to attack Kenya from Somalia has been continues and lack of Progress, In the absence of an inclusive Somali national army capable of protecting borders.
