A Ruto Presidency Creates new Opportunities and Risks for the Horn and wider East, Central Africa.

thread looking at potential implications of Ruto presidency on regional politics, For a variety of reasons, a radical shift in Kenyan foreign policy is not conceivable, Kenya likely to remain a key Western ally for foreseeable future, anchor state in the Horn…

Ruto will make some attempts rhetorically to pivot to non-Western states, But in his first term his instinct will be to keep West on side,Russia & China see new opportunity/potential.

Somalia’s nationalist movement led by Farmaajo supported Ruto, believe he is more sympathetic to Somalia’s national interest, Ruto as president will provide continuity on many strategic issues regarding Somalia. In fact, he could even prove more hardline on issues like refugees.

There is potential for new crisis in relations with Somalia. The maritime dispute has not been resolved mutually, Oil and gas companies will try to push Ruto into allowing operations/activities to continue in the Lamu Basin.

Ruto and PM Abiy of Ethiopia are both populist and Evangelicals. They are likely to bond quickly, But relations to remain fraught, complicated, Addis looks to Ruto to ease Kenyatta, Kenya out of mediation, transfer role back to AU and Obasanjo.

Western States may find it difficult to deal with Ruto, whether over the ICC issue, or corruption concerns, Owing to Kenya’s pivotal position, views will be quickly modified to give some level of cooperation to Ruto, Alienating Ruto could risk pushing Kenya away.

Uganda will be relieved with Ruto in charge. Museveni has a strong dislike of Raila, Ruto has a lot to teach young Muhoozi on grassroots campaigning. A Ruto-Muhhoozi East Africa is being touted as good – bringing youth dynamic leadership.

Ruto wants a second term. He is likely to govern from the centre and to drive a more centrist foreign policy agenda, If he feels cornered, he could deepen the “look East policy” of Kibaki. He could also court Russia and China.