The price of civil war: A survey of Somalia’s arms markets 

The current report presents additional findings from the eight-month collection of field data, conducted by GI-TOC field researchers between December 2020 and August 2021..

The analysis is structured in three parts:

•  The first consists of a pricing study of 13 illicit markets across Somalia that the GI-TOC surveyed;
• The second highlights four case studies of interest, including materiel of Iranian and Saudi origin, as well as a series of Chinese assault rifles doctored to appear as if they were of Russian manufacture;
• The third part presents a brief summary of the findings of the ammunition survey.

Key findings

•  More than 60 per cent of the illicit weapons found in Somalia had been manufactured in China.
• Almost 95 per cent of the illicit weapons found in Somalia were assault or battle rifles.
• More than 60 per cent of the illicit weapons found in Somalia had been manufactured in China.
• Weapon-pricing trends support the notion that illicit flows originate in northern Somalia and extend southward.
• Chinese- and Russian-manufactured assault rifles were priced almost identically in illicit markets, despite Russian rifles typically being decades older.
• KLS and KLF assault rifles likely to be of Iranian manufacture – possibly part of illicit arms transfers from Iran to Yemen – were also documented by our researchers.
• NATO-calibre G3 battle rifles and corresponding ammunition – some of which is of Saudi Arabian manufacture – are increasingly common in northern Somalia.
• Weapons from Somali federal government stocks continue to leak into the illicit market.
• More than 20 weapons bearing similarly falsified serial numbers were found in southern Somalia – apparently Type 56 Chinese assault rifles, modified to appear Russian.
• Arms diverted into Puntland from Iranian and Saudi Arabian transfers to their respective allies embroiled in the Yemen conflict could have particularly destabilizing consequences in the region.
• The deteriorating security situation in northern Somalia may also allow space for arms-trafficking networks to operate with greater ease.
• In future, arms trafficking networks in Somalia may well spread further into the Horn of Africa.