The breakthrough deal signed by Ethiopia’s government and Tigrayan rebels has been hailed as a crucial step to ending two years of war, but much remains unclear, observers say, raising questions about whether it will lead to a durable peace…
Other than the silencing of the guns, the accord notably calls for the provision of humanitarian aid to war-stricken regions, the re-establishment of federal authority over Tigray and the disarming of Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) fighters.
But the “Agreement for lasting peace through a permanent cessation of hostilities”, which has been published online by the government, relies largely on the good faith of the parties to resolve intractable disputes, leaves aside several crucial issues and remains vague on others, analysts said.
According to Patrick Ferras, geopolitical researcher and president of Strategies Africaines, the deal is effectively “a letter to Santa Claus because it is difficult to achieve”, “We have the impression that everything has been processed but it was done in a hurry,” he told AFP.
The negotiations in Pretoria were mediated by the African Union and barely covered nine days, The final document also made no mention of Eritrea — whose forces have backed Ethiopian soldiers during their operations in Tigray — or of the various regional militias involved in the war.
Too many Unknowns’
For instance, the contested Western Tigray region, which has been occupied by Ethiopia’s Amhara militias since the war erupted, is one of the issues looming over the peace process, and the deal does little to address it.
The TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s election in 2018, has always refused to negotiate on the matter, a position echoed by the Amhara who also claim the region.
Poisoned chalice’
The biggest unanswered question concerns the future of the TPLF, a party whose influence over Ethiopian politics was unquestionable for many years, but which now faces an uncertain road ahead.
The crucial issue is whether the “TPLF (will) maintain its role of ruling party” in Tigray, said Petrini, Barely 24 hours after the deal was signed, Abiy told a crowd of supporters in southern Ethiopia that his government had secured “100 percent” of its demands in the negotiations.
