Raila’s AU Commission job hunt may prove to be an apt exit or trapdoor..

Raila Odinga has always been an enigma in Kenyan politics. His performance abroad? Debatable, even when he was assigned by the African Union, But, on Thursday, he said he was going for the African Union Commission Chairperson seat. One diplomat initially gave a brutal rating of a Raila candidacy but tampered it with a ‘if’…

“It is very important in that business that the candidate come from the East African region. I just wonder what the appetite is for him. He will need 34 votes,” said the diplomat who is involved in some of the African Union programmes, The election is due early next year but the programme to replace the incumbent, Moussa Faki Mahamat of Chad, is set to begin soon as candidates express their desire and file the applications.

In Kenya, some already saw a Raila candidacy as a project by the government of President William Ruto to provide a suitable exit for a politician who has been a vocal critic of its programmes and has contested for presidency five times in vain, if he wins next year General Election in Kenya in 2027 will find him with two years on his term, a trapdoor of some sort: At the AU, former Chair Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma refused to contest a second term in 2017, eyeing South African presidency. She lost both.

It will expose him to further political humiliation if he loses in a race where losers hardly recover their political careers elsewhere. Nairobi hopes he wins and officials are preparing a special team to market Odinga, who will also be provided with state resources to campaign, sources say.

Candidates need endorsements from their respective governments, something Raila already has, and will need to enter a series of horse-trading with neighbours or countries who belong to the same regional economic blocs such as the EAC or the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, The current AU Deputy Commission Chair, Dr Monique Nsanzabaganwa, is from Rwanda, which is grouped among Eastern Africa countries. Raila’s immediate headache is to rally East African neighbours where Nairobi has suffered outright rejection (as in Sudan) or has trading disputes (like with Uganda).

So far, we don’t know if anyone else in the region will go for the seat but the grapevine names former Uganda vice-president Speciosa Kazibwe and former Tanzania president Jakaya Kikwete, as well as former Kenya President Uhuru Kenyatta as possible contenders.