El Niño climate Phenomenon will likely bring Heavy Rains across Horn of Africa..

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) announced that the October to December 2023 climate forecast shows high chances of wetter-than-usual conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, October to December constitutes a vital rainfall season, particularly in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, contributing 20-70% of the annual total rainfall…

Notably, there is an exceptionally high probability (>80%) of experiencing wetter-than-usual rainfall in southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia. On the other hand, probabilities indicate drier-than-usual conditions for isolated areas of south-western Uganda and south-western South Sudan.

As a result of the heavy rainfall experienced across much of the region from March to May (MAM) 2023, increased precipitation from October to December (OND) 2023 may contribute to flooding. Dr Guleid Artan, ICPAC Director, noted: “We have now entered El Niño conditions which, for Eastern Africa, are synonymous with wetter conditions during OND. After three years of devastating drought, this may be seen as a blessing for farmers. Still, it can quickly become a curse. Desert locusts are already proliferating to alarming levels in parts of the region*. The risk of deadly incidents also increases significantly. We all remember the last El Niño in 2015/16 when downpours of torrential rains caused landslides, flash floods, and buildings to collapse. Governments and disaster management agencies are advised to take all necessary measures to save lives and livelihoods.”

Dr Hussen Seid, Climate Modelling Expert at ICPAC, added: “El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterised by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Its effects can influence weather patterns worldwide. Another significant phenomenon known as the Indian Ocean Dipole is developing over the Indian Ocean and will reinforce the El Niño impacts.”

The start of the season will likely occur early in parts of the region where elevated rainfall is anticipated (eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and eastern Tanzania), In contrast, probabilities favour an average or delayed onset over parts of northern Somalia, western Kenya, Uganda, southern South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania.