Somalia: Votes on the AU (ATMIS) and on the Renewal of the Sanctions Regime

the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution regarding a request by the African Union (AU) to revise the operational timelines for the drawdown of the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). The draft text in blue also extends the authorization for AU member states to deploy uniformed personnel in the country to carry out ATMIS’ mandated tasks until 30 June 2024…

The Security Council is also expected to vote on a UK-authored draft resolution renewing the 751 Al-Shabaab sanctions regime until 1 December. It seems that the penholder proposed a short technical rollover of the sanctions regime to allow time for further deliberations on its renewal. The short one-page draft text in blue renews the provisions contained in resolution 2662 of 17 November 2022, which last renewed the sanctions regime until 15 November. (The term “technical rollover” is commonly used by diplomats to describe a concise resolution extending a peace operation’s mandate without altering its core mandate or tasks, usually for a shorter period than is customary.)

Background on ATMIS

Pursuant to resolution 2687 of 27 June, which most recently renewed ATMIS’ authorisation, the AU was expected to withdraw 3,000 ATMIS personnel by 30 September as part of the second phase of the mission’s drawdown.

In a 19 September letter addressed to the Security Council, the Somali government requested a three-month technical pause in the drawdown of 3,000 ATMIS personnel. The letter reportedly said that, following the 26 August attack by Al-Shabaab in the Galguduud region, Somali forces suffered significant setbacks, and retreated from several towns that they had recently taken. It added that such incidents have exposed Somali forces’ vulnerabilities on the frontlines and have necessitated a thorough reorganization to sustain the momentum in countering threats from Al-Shabaab.

In a 28 September letter, the Council agreed to continue the authorisation for the deployment of 3,000 uniformed personnel to ATMIS. The letter requested the UN to continue to support these troops until 31 October 2023 and the Secretary-General to pause the planned changes to the support provided by the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) to ATMIS and to Somali personnel, which were to start on 1 October 2023.

On 30 September, the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) met to consider the Somali government’s request to extend the second phase of ATMIS’ operational timeline. In a communiqué adopted following the meeting, the AUPSC expressed support for the Somali government’s request and took note of financial shortfalls that could impede the operationalisation of such a technical pause. (For more information, see the brief on Somalia in our November 2023 Monthly Forecast.) On 10 October, Mozambique sent a letter to the Security Council communicating the AUPSC’s decision on the matter.

Negotiations on the Draft ATMIS Resolution

Tomorrow’s vote on ATMIS follows long and difficult negotiations. The UK circulated the initial draft of the resolution on 23 October and convened one round of negotiations on 25 October. Following bilateral consultations with some members, at least four revised drafts, and breaks of three silence procedures, the penholder placed a draft in text blue without a further silence procedure today (14 November).

It appears that the UK initially intended to put a draft resolution on ATMIS to a vote on or before 31 October. In light of continued disagreements and to allow further deliberations on the text, on 31 October, the Council sent a letter to the Secretary-General requesting that the UN continue its support to the 3,000 ATMIS personnel until 15 November.

In response to the AU’s request, the draft resolution in blue authorises the extension of the drawdown of 3,000 ATMIS personnel until 31 December. It also extends the authorisation for AU member states to deploy uniformed personnel in the country to carry out ATMIS’ mandated tasks until 30 June 2024. Therefore, taking into account the 4,000 ATMIS personnel that are expected to withdraw by the end of June 2024 as part of the third phase of ATMIS’ drawdown, the draft text in blue authorises ATMIS to maintain up to 14,626 uniformed personnel between 1 January and 30 June 2024.